The Assassination of Boudiaf

     Mohammed Boudiaf, Algeria's head of state, was assassinated by Islamic fundamentalists on 29 June, two days after the leaders of the outlawed Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) went on trial on charges that carry the death penalty, and one day after Defense Minister Khaled Nezzar, a member of the presidency, vowed "implacable war" against those Islamic fundamentalists who had killed some 70 members of the security forces since mid-February. 

     The attack on Boudiaf was well organized.  It began with an grenade explosion to one side of the podium from which he was speaking.  That blast drew the attention of Boudiaf and his guards while another grenade was thrown under his chair.  The two blasts were then followed by a gunman dressed in the uniform of the elite police intervention unit who emerged from the crowd behind Boudiaf, and emptied his sub-machine gun into the President's back. The gunman and at least 40 other people were killed or injured in the attack.  Among the wounded were the Minister of Industry and a top provincial official.

     The assassination took place in the town of Annaba, about 280 miles east of Algiers, and was preceded by the explosion of a small handmade bomb in a union office in the port of Skikda, where Boudiaf was to have visited later. 

     Boudiaf's assassination coincided with the Algerian state-owned  oil company Sonatrach's launch in London of a first onshore leasing round in which it sought participation by foreign oil companies in opening up new production facilities in Algeria.  Oil prices rose on immediate fears that the killing of Boudiaf might trigger unrest that could hit production, but they fell back later in the day. Sources believe there may be a short-term disruption of exports from Algeria, but the country will have to sell oil eventually. 

     The attack on Boudiaf was the Arab World's most dramatic political killing since Egyptian president Anwar Sadat was assassinated by Moslem fundamentalists in 1981. 

     The killing can only worsen the turmoil and uncertainty into which the country has plunged since a wave of Islamic fundamentalism swept the now outlawed FIS to local control of more than half of Algeria's towns and cities, including Algiers, in 1990. 

     The FIS was destined to command a majority in parliament had the second-round of voting not been canceled by the military-backed central government, which later brought Boudiaf back from exile in France to lead it.  Since taking office Boudiaf had attempted to form a national coalition spanning all political groups except the FIS, which was outlawed.  Boudiaf had proved merciless against the Islamic Front, which wants to turn Algeria into an Islamic nation on the model of Iran. 

     Iran and other members of fundamentalist Moslem organizations praised the killing of the Algerian leader, while the U.S., the organization of African Unity, France and other western nations condemned it.  French leaders in particular voiced fears of civil war or a full military takeover of the former French colony.  The country is currently in a state of uneasy calm, with no visible extra security in effect.  However, arrests of fundamentalist leaders are expected over the next few days. 

     The Minister of Defense, Khaled Nezzar, appears to be in control of the government at the present time, but informed sources say that the prognosis for political stability in the near future is not good.  The problem lies in the fact that the majority of the Algerian people seem to support the idea of an Iranian style Islamic Republic, but the ruling elite do not.  That would seem to rule out any form of democracy in Algeria, at least until attitudes of the populace are changed.  So for the near term we can expect to see a strong central government suppressing the majority. 

     The wild card in all of this would be outside intervention, either by a country such as France (a la Chad), or Iran, which could tip the scales in either direction.