Introduction/Highlights

   This study will serve as a backgrounder focusing on stability in Colombia.  It addresses current trends in threats - especially to foreigners - from the guerrillas, the narcos, and the criminal elements, and provides an appreciation of key political and economic concerns.

   Guerrillas of the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC) continue their disruptive operations against the Colombian government and the extractive industries, particularly foreign oil companies and their contractors.  Pipeline attacks, extortions, kidnap-for-ransom schemes, bombings and assassinations continue apace.  When this is added to narco-terrorism and record-breaking crime levels, it becomes quite clear that the risks are varied and great for those who live and work in Colombia.

   Although Colombian president Cesar Gaviria has been generally ineffectual in dealing with Colombia's problems, he was praised by many in Colombia (not in the U.S.) for his unprecedented deal with Medellin cartel boss Pablo Escobar in June of last year, which brought an end to the bloody narco-terrorism wars.

   Unfortunately, just as that effort was concluded, the guerrillas took to the offensive and cost the country more than a billion dollars in GNP growth.  Attacks on government officials, kidnappings, and armed attacks on oil industry facilities and the country's electrical grid forced the government to the bargaining table.  But again, the policy of appeasement, offering amnesty to the guerrillas, etc., only served to embolden them.

   Gaviria's leadership is now suspect, both at home and abroad.  Unrest and a genuine anger in the military, which was blamed for Escobar's escape even though the government deal left Escobar in virtual control of his incarceration, will continue to increase, although prospects for a coup are unlikely.

   The economy is still healthy, despite low world coffee prices and precious little tourism, and the Casanares oil find should lead to even greater economic growth in the future.  This sleeping giant of a country, with one of the most stable and diversified economies in Latin America, must find a way to improve stability and to control violence within its borders.  If that can be achieved, foreign investment will follow and solid economic growth could then be expected to benefit Colombia and its investors.

The Security Situation

   The security situation in Colombia is, in a word, worsening.  The ELN and the FARC are consolidating their gains and preparing for a new offensive.  They are also diversifying, especially since their former communist ideology is moribund.  Both guerrilla groups are moving even deeper into the drug trade, protecting production sites and processing facilities for cocaine, while at the same time dabbling in the newly lucrative heroin trade aimed primarily at clients in Europe and Asia.

   The next offensive is expected to be the most ambitious in history.  The extractive industries will be a major target.  Increased extortion demands, kidnappings, armed attacks on facilities and pipeline bombings should figure prominently in guerrilla plans.  Attacks on military and police outposts are expected to increase commensurately.

   The guerrillas have, however, promised not to continue their attacks on sectors like electricity, water and transportation, which cause undue hardship to the average Colombian.

   While the Government of Colombia (GOC) probably has the wherewithal to combat the guerrillas effectively, there is serious doubt that it has the will.

   The need to commit additional police and military forces to the narco threat naturally reduces the number of troops and resources available to combat guerrillas.  At present, security forces are mounting a concerted effort to recapture Pablo Escobar.  Or so it would seem…

   Just last week a U.S. C-130 intelligence collection aircraft reported that it had located Escobar.  However, when it passed the information on to the GOC, the GOC denied the information and ordered the aircraft to cease operations.

   With Escobar on the loose and again in complete command of his cartel warriors, he has launched a campaign of violent cleanup of his own Medellin cartel and has taken the offensive against the Cali cartel.  While Escobar was incarcerated, the Cali narcos, under Gilberto Rodriguez, had been making significant inroads into the turf (read profits) of the Medellin cartel; violent revenge is an old Colombian characteristic.

   A return to an all-out drug war between the cartels and against government forces (if they are ordered to intervene) would further dampen prospects for stability in the near term.

   Even if the guerrilla and narco threats can be contained, the specter of rising crime rates continues unabated.  Homicide and kidnapping rates remain the highest in the world.  Street crime, particularly in the major cities, is also on the increase.

  Mother nature has even played an unhappy role in the crime increase phenomenon.  A record drought has seriously reduced water supplies and damaged the country's hydroelectric capacity.  This has caused water shortages and power outages that have forced many factories and businesses to lay off workers, thereby swelling the ranks of the unemployed, who all too often turn to crime to put food on the table (there is no unemployment compensation or state welfare in Colombia).

   Kidnap-for-ransom is now a major criminal business, although guerrillas remain the major perpetrators.  There were more than 2,500 reported kidnappings during calendar year 1991, plus an equal or greater number that went unreported.

   The kidnapping of foreign oil company employees in the past two years brought more than US$25 million into guerrilla war chests:  there were at least four Americans, three Frenchmen and two Japanese among the victims. Moreover, knowledgeable sources report that the ELN alone brings in more than US$2.5 million per month in extortion payments from foreign companies involved in the extractive industries.

   Ineffective and corrupt police forces combined with a justice system in shambles does not auger well for the future.  Murder and kidnapping will probably continue unchecked by the authorities, and vigilantism will continue to grow as citizens in many of the larger cities take their own measures to slow the crime waves.

   As noted earlier, failure to reach a negotiated agreement with the guerrillas is expected to lead to a new guerrilla offensive.  The guerrillas have achieved international recognition, a limited exchange of prisoners, and have had time to regroup and consolidate their control in many areas of the countryside.  Probably the only bright spot is the fact that the narcos, guerrillas and criminals have not yet joined forces formally and taken over the country.

Political/Economic Situation

   At the two year mark in President Gaviria's administration it is clear that his performance is declining.  His initiative to reduce the narco problems by offering Pablo Escobar a deal has backfired; Escobar has escaped, embarrassing Gaviria's administration badly.  His move to bring the guerrillas to the negotiating table and neutralize their activities has also ended in failure.

   Even a new constitution and a more pluralistic Congress have not been able to lessen Colombia's maladies.  There has been little progress on promised reforms to deal with unemployment, weak government institutions (particularly the Judiciary), high poverty levels, and public education.

   The Liberal Party still exercises power and control over the Congress.  State and local governments still try to meet the needs of the people, and government institutions have not collapsed.  But there is little optimism anywhere. Status quo seems to be the best that can be hoped for -- and even that is questionable.

   Despite the Escobar escape fiasco, there is no significant unrest or discord in the military, which remains underpaid, underfunded and underappreciated.  An intelligence budget for one active Army Brigade for 1991, for example, was a meager US$150.  The government is trying to make more funds available for operations against the guerrillas and there has been some movement in this regard. But low pay remains a sticking point:  a beggar makes more than a private soldier, a captain with six years of service makes about $600 per month, and colonels and generals who are not independently wealthy must look elsewhere for ways to augment their salaries.

   A strong government commitment to use the military to battle the guerrillas and narcos would, nonetheless, have a positive effect on morale.  At some point Colombia will probably have to bite the bullet and declare war against the narcos, guerrillas and criminals, which would be bloody, in order to restore a normally functioning society to the suffering people.  A tall order.

   In terms of pure economics, the gods continue to smile on Colombia.  The new major oil finds in the Cusiana river basin in Casanares provide good news.  The inflation rate is holding fairly well at about 25 percent, GDP Growth is now between 2.5 and 3.0 percent, and a recent GOC planning document is projecting GDP growth to exceed 5 percent for1993.

   On the negative side, unemployment is up sharply to nearly 20 percent.  (Underemployment is difficult to gauge accurately, but is estimated at close to 40 percent.  This is significant because so many unemployed and underemployed individuals engage in criminal activity.)Colombia continues to meet its responsibilities with regard to international debt servicing but, except for the extractive industries, foreign investment is down.  The combined effect of the drug wars and guerrilla activities has cost the government as much as US$2 billion per year over the past three years.  In general, exports are holding steady, with oil and cut flowers up, but coffee down.

   Direct tax collection is improving, resulting in higher revenues, and a reduction in import taxes has stimulated both imports and more prompt payment of the remaining import taxes.  Tariffs are expected to come down as well.

   Finally, efforts to privatize government industries have not yet gotten off the ground.  Investors, local as well as international, are poised for privatization, but they still seek more assurances of stability before taking the plunge.  Capital investments have been delayed for the same reason.

   Although much will depend on whether the economic sector will continue to be targeted by the guerrillas, Colombia's economy still appears sufficiently strong and diverse to carry the country until the government can deal successfully with the myriad of political, military and social problems.

Some Recent Exploration Developments

   Garnet Resources Corporation announced that its Mary Number 2 well in the Putumayo region of Colombia has reached a depth of almost 8,000 feet and production casing has been set.  Testing of four possible oil sands in the well will be delayed, however, for about 60 days, or until the company can install a barge ferry operation across the Caqueta river.  This delay will save the company US$600,000 to US$800,000 in annual helicopter costs and permit use of smaller mobile drilling rigs for future wells.  Total annual savings could exceed US$1 million.

   American International Petroleum Corporation announced success in testing its Puli Number 3 well in the Toqui-Toqui field (which draws on a field under the Magdalena river basin in Colombia).  The well tested at a combined flow rate of 1,710 barrels of 33 API gravity crude oil and 2.65 million cubic feet of gas per day.  Recoverable resources are estimated to reach about 160 million barrels total at the site. The company expects to begin drilling Puli Number 4 to evaluate the rest of the region.

   American International later announced it was suspending testing of its Maranon Number 1 well in the Rio Planas contract area of the Llanos Basin due to the high permeability of the formation and proximity of an aquifer which could not be isolated.

   Maxus Oil was criticized strongly in an article by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. concerning its operations in nearby Ecuador.  The article implied that Maxus, taking over a joint venture partnership from Conoco, would not respect the ecological balance in the region (as Conoco had promised to do).

   BP Oil may be disappointed over the estimated level of oil reserves in the Cusiana field in Colombia, resulting in a drop in share value on the London exchange.  The figure of 700 million in reserves is far lower than the wildly optimistic original estimate of 10 billion barrels.  The 700 million figure was confirmed by ECOPETROL.

 Recent Guerrilla/Narco-Terrorism Activities

   Attacks occurred throughout the country against government patrols and installations.  A small remote mountain town called El Calvano, 50 miles southeast of Bogota, was among those attacked, along with farmers near the border with Venezuela.

   Guerrilla activities directed specifically against the extractive industries were still in abeyance.

   The embarrassing Pablo Escobar saga continues to unfold with the arrest of 21 guards and 5 prisoners at the prison facility where he was being held.  A reward of US$3.4 million has been offered for Escobar, but in this case fear outweighs greed and Escobar is likely to continue to elude the government's widely publicized but largely ineffectual manhunt. 

   The only positive development is that rival cocaine barons are also looking for Escobar.  If they find him another deal would be unlikely, and Escobar may at last meet his maker.

 Various Scams Perpetrated Against Visitors

   There are many scams and tactics that victimize unsuspecting visitors to Colombia.  Following are just a few examples:

• Tired travelers arriving at the international airports in Bogota and Cali have been met by criminals posing as local employees.  The criminals see a name and a company on a sign held by the genuine greeter, copy it onto their own sign and move closer to the front of the line. They distract the traveler and take him to their car, where he is abducted, robbed, and sometimes murdered. Visitors should work out a coded signal or parole phrase with the greeter to ensure they will be met by someone reliable.





• Thieves can strike at any time, in tourist areas especially.  Not long ago, a visiting U.S. Special Forces soldier taking in the sights near the cable car terminal in Bogota's prime tourist area was dressed in civilian clothes and carrying a backpack; he was stationed in Panama and spoke good Spanish.  In a matter of seconds his backpack was slashed from his back and the two robbers got away clean.  He was more than a little embarrassed to have to report not only the theft of his backpack, but also the loss of his 9mm Beretta (it was in the backpack).





• A visiting military officer left his bag (also containing a pistol) on a stool at a luxury hotel bar.  He was surprised to find it missing when he returned from the men's room.  Basic carelessness in this case.





• A U.S. Embassy official, long experienced in Latin American ways, was driving to work one morning enjoying the beautiful weather.  He rolled down the window on the driver's side and placed his elbow on the sill.  A young thief snuck up behind him and yanked his expensive watch from his wrist.  The shocked driver was left sitting in traffic wondering what happened.  He bought another watch and vowed to be more careful, adopting the Colombian habit of wearing it on the right wrist (many Colombian taxi drivers follow this practice).  The following month, in the same car at the same intersection, the official was enjoying another rare sunny day on his way to work and he again put his elbow out the window.  This time he felt a pinprick on his left shoulder and, thinking it was an insect, reached over with his right hand to slap at it.  zap, away went his new Rolex.  Angrily, but thoughtlessly, he gave chase, racing across traffic on foot after the thief.  When a sixth sense told him to look back he saw another thief driving off with his car.  A well-planned operation.





• A Spanish speaking former U.S. metropolitan police officer working temporarily at the U.S. Embassy was stopped on the street outside a major hotel in downtown Bogota by someone who flashed police identification.  He was asked to show some identification and to prove that he had his cash in a safe place.  As requested, the man handed his wallet and cash over to the "policeman" who said he could recover the items at the police station in half an hour. The "policeman" left a card with the address and telephone number of the police station, and directions on how to get there.  Of course, the victim was completely duped, responding naively to the appearance of authority.  It was a $2,000 lesson, his entire travel advance, which his parent agency refused to reimburse.  





• A TDY military officer suffered the same fate a week later, although it only cost him $200.





• A variation on the same scam, in this instance at one of the affluent shopping centers in the north of Bogota:  cars with two or three official-looking men who identify themselves as "treasury department" agents demand to see an American's cash to ensure that it is not counterfeit.  The unwitting visitor shows the cash, accepts a receipt for it, and is given the address of the nearest police station to recover it.  Gone!  Three such incidents were reported to the U.S. Embassy by American tourists in a two-month period last year.  (Several of the "policemen" involved spoke excellent English and were "very well mannered.")  





• Some months ago, the resident FBI agent in Bogota knew he would be going into a high-crime area so he took off his prized Rolex and put it in his pocket, a routine precaution.  He thought nothing more about it until, just as his business was concluding and he was getting back into his chauffeured official car, he felt a strong hand grasp his empty wrist and then dash off empty-handed.  A close call, but one can't be too careful, he said.  

 A Few Helpful Hints

   Use common sense.  Don't carry unneeded cash or travelers checks or credit cards.  Carry a Xerox copy of your passport's first three pages instead of the passport itself.  Don't wear expensive watches or jewelry.  Select taxis carefully and never get into one with more that one person.  Never accept candy, cigarettes of beverages of any kind from a stranger as they may contain knockout drugs. Get through airport formalities quickly on departure and move briskly to the departure lounge rather than amble through the airport.  Trust your instincts.

   Because of the threat of kidnappings, muggings and other criminal activities, it is also wise to alter your daily pattern whenever possible.  Strangers, or others without a need-to-know, should not have access to your schedule, lodging and travel plans during your stay.

   Travel in-country only during daylight hours.  Stay on main highways.  Never travel by train or public bus.  Try not to travel alone, if at all possible.  Select lodgings carefully and double-check your reservations.  Use the safety deposit box in your hotel.  Travel with a minimum of cash and valuables.  A travel alarm cum door lock is a good investment for Colombia.  Try to obtain lodgings above the third floor if at all possible, but check locks on windows and balcony doors in any case.  Be careful of what you eat and drink.  In addition to the Mickey Finn threat, cholera cases are increasing and the two national mineral water companies have just been found to have contaminated plants.

   Without exception, all cities in Colombia should be considered dangerous.  Bogota, Cali and Medellin are especially bad, but the north coast cities are catching up.  Avoid travel to the border regions and know that there are vast areas of Colombia where there is no police or military presence.  It is wise to have armed escorts if you must travel to the remote regions.

   In Bogota, it is prudent to live in apartments, as they are much easier to make secure than detached dwellings.  The U.S. Embassy recommends apartments above the third floor and suggests avoiding penthouses, because intruders can more easily gain access from adjoining or nearby rooftops.  All glass should by Mylar-ed to reduce shattering in the event of a bomb blast.  Ensure that the apartment has armed guards, and reliable video and alarm systems as well.  Use deadbolts and reinforce doors with steel.  Install 5/8 inch steel grills on windows and glass doors.  A well-stocked safe-haven area is a must and should include the following:  a battery operated radio and a telephone, water, food, fire extinguisher, first aid kit, alarm system, grilles and rape gate, and a weapon, preferably a shotgun with extra ammunition.

   Burglaries and armed intrusions can be minimized by practicing good defensive measures faithfully.  The first precaution is to investigate carefully your employees and have the doorman checked out.  virtually all burglaries and intrusions reported by the foreign business and diplomatic community in the past two years have been "inside" jobs, i.e. collusion between the robbers and either the maid or the doorman, or both; at times even the security guards have been in cahoots.  Don't leave your residence unattended --ever.  Teach family and servants how to answer the telephone and handle conversations with strangers, especially so-called wrong number calls.

   Multinational corporations that must maintain staff, offices and installations throughout the country have comprehensive security programs.  Occidental, Shell, BP, et al, are models of security preparedness.  As targets of guerrilla groups they have to be.  Security is big business throughout the commercial, industrial and private sectors in Colombia.  The U.S. Embassy has one of the largest and most effective security programs in the world.  Crime and terrorist threats will have to be reduced drastically before tight security can be relaxed.