Introduction/Highlights

   Relative calm continues to prevail in the Ogaden and elsewhere in the country.  However, the government's campaign against the opposition, especially the All Amahara Political organization (AAPO), is unrelenting.  EPDRF troops are increasingly visible in Addis Ababa, thus increasing tension.  The security situation in Eritrea remains erratic.

   Some 20,000 Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) fighters that had been disarmed and interned at a military camp in Hurso, Hararghe, have been released.  An additional 400 political detainees, including several former cabinet ministers and a number of high ranking military officers, were also released from prison on bail.

   Increasing unemployment, coupled with the diminishing purchasing value of the Birr, is creating widespread discontentment, particularly in Addis Ababa.

Security Situation

   The overall security situation in the Ogaden and elsewhere in the country remained stable.  The Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) is taking all necessary security precautions to prevent any incidents that might adversely affect the outcome of the upcoming Somali National Reconciliation Conference in Addis Ababa.

   The release of 20,000 OLF fighters is strong testament to the confidence of the EPRDF in its ability to maintain order, particularly in the explosive Hararghe region of the country.

   A plan announced by the organization of African Unity's (OAU) Secretary General, Salim Ahmed Salim, to establish a rapid deployment force to police the continent's many wars has met with resistance from Ethiopia.  Ethiopia's Foreign Minister, Seyoum Mesfin, told the OAU to shelve the plan until members paid some US$70 million in membership arrears. He voiced fears that the OAU would be so strapped for cash it would have to call on foreign states to finance the force, and this would infringe on African sovereignty. Finally, the OAU decided to move ahead with plans to set up the force over the objections of Ethiopia and other member states.

   Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi said that poverty was no excuse for not paying OAU dues since all member states paid their dues to the UN.  Only five members of the OAU, including Ethiopia, are up to date with their membership dues.

   The Ethiopian student, Nebiu Zewolde Demeke, who hijacked the Lufthansa airplane to the US was an emotionally volatile youth who wanted desperately to join his sister and two brothers in the US.  His father was an economist who is a political prisoner in Ethiopia.  There were no political motives behind Demeke's actions aside from the fact that he did not want to return to Ethiopia.

   Britain's overseas development minister wants UN troops deployed in northern Kenya to improve security along the Ethiopian and Somali borders.  Kenya refused the deployment of about 750 UN troops along its border with Somalia last August, but this time Britain intends to withhold a reinstatement of aid to Kenya until it receives assurances from the International Monetary fund (IMF) and the World Bank that it has carried out reforms along their recommended lines.

   Some 32,000 Ethiopian refugees have returned home from north Kenyan camps since the UN-sponsored repatriation plan began in mid-December.

Political/Diplomatic Developments

   Several former top officials during the Derge regime were finally brought before the court.  However, after an appeal by the Special Prosecutor, they were remanded back into custody until 12 March.  The prosecutor's office also announced that some 300 lower-level detainees, and about another 100 high/mid-level officials and former high/mid-ranking military officers were released on bail.  One former Cabinet Minister and a Commissioner were released earlier without the knowledge of the prosecutor's office.  The release of the 400 follows a series of court appearances by several of 2,000 former government officials who surrendered after the rebels took power and who have been held without trial since.

   President Meles Zenawai condemned the activities of the AAPO and expressed his "increasing uneasiness" about this particular opposition group.  While he admitted it would be difficult for the AAPO to launch a protracted rural armed struggle, he said it was still capable of "fomenting violence and public unrest."  This point was further articulated during a government sponsored mass rally staged at Maskal Square against the AAPO.  Meles also declared that Addis Ababa University would remain closed until around the end of March to avoid renewed bloodshed over the Eritrea succession issue.

   Eritrea's transitional head of state, Isayas Afewerki, has returned to Israel for the second time in a month to receive treatment for malaria.  Afewerki's treatment is evidence of the solid ties being established between Israel and Eritrea, which will probably become independent after a referendum in April.

   The newly independent press in Ethiopia is becoming increasingly vocal about Eritrea still being carried under Ethiopia's national budget.  A large number of Ethiopians are also calling for more than 300,000 Eritreans to pack up and leave Ethiopia after the de jure secession, but President Meles has repeatedly stated that Eritreans can continue to live in Ethiopia like any other foreigners.

Economic/Relief Activities

   Evidence of the results of the new investment proclamation can be seen in the start-up of 355 private small-scale industries whose combined capital is about EB9O million (US$18 million).  A total of 2,307 other small companies have been given temporary licenses enabling them to proceed with their projects.  This is a positive indication that the change from a state monopoly system to private enterprise is paying high dividends.

  Altad Ltd., the company that is preparing to build the multi-million dollar Sheraton hotel complex in Addis, is busy expediting the construction work by moving some 600 families from the construction site to new homes built for them by Altad.

   France has forgiven a 100 year old debt incurred during the building of the Addis Ababa/Djibouti railway, and has agreed to start new areas of economic cooperation with Ethiopia.  Heretofore France's cooperation was limited to the Cultural field.  Ethiopia also secured a DM37 million (US$23.1 million) grant from Germany, and an EBl2 million (US$2.4 million) grant from the Netherlands.  The latter will be used for the purchase of tools and farm oxen to be used by farmers in Tigrai, Gondar and Wollo.

   Although prospects for world cereal crops have improved, acute famine persists in sub-Saharan Africa. Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the northern and eastern parts of Kenya and the Sudan are among the hardest hit.

   The government has made changes to its work hours and days to accommodate Muslim workers' prayer schedules.  The new schedule is:  Monday to Thursday, 0830-1230 and 1330-1730; Fridays, 0830-1130 and 1330-1730; Saturdays and Sundays are holidays.

   The government has also started to rotate employees at all levels from the ministries and other agencies of the central government to regional administrations, and vice-versa.  The rotations are voluntary and the purpose is to share expertise and knowledge and to develop better relations between Addis Ababa and the rest of the country.

   There have also been severe cuts in the government labor force due to phasing-out programs and outright dismissals of workers attached to unprofitable factories and public enterprises being sold to the private sector or shut down.  These workers are victims of the new structural adjustment program dictated by the World Bank.

   Thus, inflation, the sluggish economy, the scarcity of jobs, the growing number of unemployed, and the TGE's mounting intolerance towards opposition groups have all contributed to the increasing unpopularity of the government.  Nevertheless, the TGE continues to enjoy the support of the U.S., European community, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

   Throughout sub-Saharan Africa, population increases continue to outstrip food production year after year. Ethiopia's population, now 52 million, is expanding at a rate of 3.2% a year.  With only 4% of Ethiopian women of childbearing age using contraceptives, conservative estimates indicate the population could easily hit 180 million within 40 years.  This means that unless some drastic changes occur, the country is bound to experience famine after famine until food production is balanced with population growth.

   Large swarms of desert locusts are threatening a new plague in East Africa and the Middle East.  Breeding grounds include the Ogaden and Eritrea in Ethiopia, Djibouti and the whole length of the coastal belt of northern Somalia.  This upsurge of desert locusts could threaten monsoon crops in a belt extending from western Africa to India.

Tidbits

   The UN announced that over 25,000 troops would be deployed under its flag throughout Somalia, including the breakaway north and along Somalia's borders with Kenya and Ethiopia, after the impending US handover of command of the multi-national force.  With the transfer of command, about 19,000 US troops will return home in April, leaving only a rapid-reaction force of about 5,000 Americans and US logistical support.  About 10,000 other non-US troops would also stay behind.

   Ethiopian ships, including the "Ethiopia," the flagship of the Ethiopian navy, are being advertised for sale.  All are currently docked in Yemen.  Many people are incensed over the "indecent haste by the EPRDF to dispose of Ethiopia's property even before the referendum in Eritrea."

   A serious malaria flare-up has been reported in the Ogaden, and urgent assistance has been requested by the regional administration.

   About 15,000 would-be immigrants are massed on the Ethiopian side of the border with Djibouti.  Djibouti ordered the border closed after arresting more than 2,500 poverty stricken Ethiopians who tried to enter illegally.