Introduction/Highlights

   The security situation remained calm throughout the country, including the Ogaden.  However, government suppression of student demonstrations at Addis Ababa University has resulted in a serious loss of credibility for the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE).  The TGE is losing popularity due to its increasing intolerance towards all activist political organizations and its ho-hum attitude toward the upcoming referendum in Eritrea.

Security Situation

   The overall security situation in the Ogaden remains calm.  No significant security incidents have been reported by our sources or by the TGE.  On the other hand, part of the reason for the lack of incidents may be the massive presence of EPRDF troops patrolling along the border with Somalia.  They are there mostly to assure that armed bands running from U.S. forces in Somalia will not infiltrate into Ethiopia.

   Similarly, the fact that preparations are now underway for convening a national reconciliation conference on 15 March in Addis Ababa to discuss the Somalia problem could be another reason why the TGE is taking every precaution to avert incidents in the region.  The TGE does not want any of the hitherto warring political factions and clans to infiltrate their fighters into Ethiopia prior to a cease-fire and collection of weapons.  In recent days, U.S. troops have cracked down on gunmen and seized tons of arms.  But there is no formal ban on carrying weapons in Mogadishu or elsewhere in the lawless nation.

   Another reason for the current presence of large numbers of EPRDF forces in the Ogaden could be to provide maximum security for the first conference of the Ogaden Regional Administration, and for the TGE Prime Minister and his party who are there to launch the new administration.

   The above are the most plausible reasons for the significant increase in EPRDF forces in the Ogaden, and we believe that this presence has in turn led to the decrease in subversive activity in the region.  The problems are still there, it's just that everyone is lying low until most of the troops leave.

Exploration Activities

   In a briefing given to Prime Minister Tamirat Layne, Minister of Mines and Energy Izedin Ali said that his ministry was attempting to secure a long-term loan of US$136 million from the World Bank and the African Development Bank for the completion of the Calub Energy Development Project.  Izadin added that the project will have the capacity to produce 70,000 tons of petroleum products annually.

   Consultants from the World Bank recently arrived in Addis to study the feasibility of the project and make recommendations concerning the loan.

Economic/Relief Activities

   Ethiopia, whose name is synonymous with famine, will produce another record harvest this year, but will still need food aid.  The continued need for food aid is created by a combination of drought and ethnic conflicts. Particular areas of need will be Tigray, Wollo and Gondar in the north, eastern Hararghe, the Ogaden and Borena in the south and southwest.

   On the plus side, good rains, greater security in rural areas, increased labor availability due to demobilized soldiers, and economic reforms, which freed prices and gave peasants incentives to produce and sell food, should lift output to a record 7.69 million tons.  This beats last year's record 7.15 million tons, but still leaves an estimated shortfall of 1.2 million tons which must be met with food aid.

   The success of relief efforts is visible in the Ogaden region.  Overall malnutrition rates for December 1992 stood at 27.9%, down from 60% in September, and abundant rains in the fall has resulted in good harvests and fair pastures.  These conditions, combined with a stable peace, has made it possible to shift emphasis from strictly relief-orientated activities to programs that emphasize development.

   While optimism for a productive future reigns in the Ogaden, some major problems persist.  Malnutrition rates in the area between Barre and Gode still hover around the 60% level.  In the eastern portion of the Ogaden, rains were more sporadic and scattered than in the south, and limited grazing areas are starting to see a significant influx of grazing herds.  Malaria is rampant in the eastern and southern regions where immunization programs have been virtually nonexistent.  Animal diseases remain unchecked, although there are encouraging signs of improvement with the recent assignment of veterinarians to various parts of the Ogaden.

   Ethiopia and Germany signed a DM25 million aid agreement that will permit Ethiopia to purchase urgently needed parts and raw materials for its private industry sector.

Political/Diplomatic Developments

   While the security situation is calm, the political situation is quite the reverse.  University students, the independent press, the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, such organizations as the All Amhara People's Organization (AAPO) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) have been severe in their criticism of the TGE.  They accuse the TGE of trampling underfoot the very charter for the transition period which the TGE drafted and steamrolled through the National Congress.

   On 4 January, Addis Ababa University students attempted to stage a peaceful demonstration against UN Secretary General Boutros Ghali, protesting his role in organizing a referendum in Eritrea and his willingness to send UN observers to witness the process.  They accused him, in effect, of being an accessory before and after Eritrea's secession, and thus helping to pave the way for Ethiopia's possible disintegration.

   As the students were heading towards the main gate of the campus they were met by massive security forces, most of them dressed like students, who then used excessive force to stop the demonstration.  The security forces were accused of using batons, knives and firearms to inflict as much bodily harm on the students as possible, rather than to simply disperse the gathering.  Although the authorities have only admitted to casualties amounting to one dead and 13 wounded, other knowledgeable sources have estimated the dead at 20 and wounded at over 100.

   On 11 January, the Assembly of the Addis Ababa University Teacher's Association unanimously adopted a resolution which, inter alia, strongly condemned the authorities for violating the peace of the campus.  It also demanded the government set up a committee of independent persons to probe into the causes of the carnage and identify those responsible for the death and damage inflicted.  It further demanded that all arrested students be promptly released and the remains of the dead be given to their relatives for appropriate burial.

   The government consistently denied all of the above charges and later fired the President and Vice President of the university and ordered the campus closed.  The government claimed that armed elements were among the demonstrators who provoked the violence, wounding three police personnel.  The government also claimed that the AAPO was behind the demonstration.  As a result of all of this, the situation in Addis Ababa as of this writing is rather tense.

   The predisposition of the TGE to muzzle all peaceful opposition is having the net effect of hardening the attitude of those sections of the public who stand for Ethiopian unity and who condemn ethnic division on the country as being contrary to the national interest.  This situation is generating a gloomy mood and is creating a feeling that the country is sitting on a powder keg.

   Allegations by the Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Ogaden that the EPRDF has infiltrated some 34 of its own special appointees among the 90 elected members of the regional parliament needs careful watching.  The allegations could provoke a confrontation between the regional administration and the central government.

   The political situation in Eritrea is similarly uncertain.  Shaebia (EPLF) alone has established the provisional government, to the exclusion of all other political factions that had participated in the liberation struggle.  The leader of Jebha (ELF) has given notice that unless all other Eritrean political factions are permitted to participate freely and effectively in the referendum process, the excluded factions will not accept the EPLF's leadership, whatever the outcome.  He even hinted that the ELF could be forced into an armed struggle against the EPLF.

 Somalia Tidbits

   The failure of Somali peace talks in Addis Ababa underlines the clan divisions that have ripped the country apart.  Not the least of Somalia's problems is the refusal of Abdurahman "Tur" (The Hunchback), to participate in any way.  Tur heads the Isaaq clan-based Somali National Movement (SNM), a former rebel group that waged a costly war with Siad Barre for most of the 1980's.  The SNM declared secession of its northwestern region -- until 1960 ruled by Great Britain -- from the rest of Somalia in May 1991, and refuses to take part in any future Somali government.

   The objectives of the UN-sponsored meeting on Somalia were deceptively simple:  The leaders of 14 warring factions were to agree on a date, site and tentative agenda for a nationwide reconciliation conference to be held within the next few months.  In addition, they were to form a committee that will consult with the UN on the coming conference.  All of this was to have taken a single day.  But the talks ended after several days in a stalemate, after Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi intervened several times to save them from total collapse.