Introduction/Highlights

   President Meles Zenawi announced the postponement of Ethiopia's first multi-party elections.  Violent clashes have erupted again in the Ogaden between government forces and the OLF.  Two more hijacking attempts occurred.  The Russian oil exploration team is winding up its activities.  The Moslem community in Addis Ababa celebrated Id-Al-Fatir for the first time ever in Maskal Square.  The event is possibly a prelude to the rise of Islamic militancy in Ethiopia.  Armed robbery, theft and begging are on the rise in Addis Ababa.

Security Situation

   Although the security situation remained calm in most of the country, there were several incidents of violent hit and run clashes between Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Forces (EPRDF) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) rebel bands in Ilubabor/Gore and Wollega.  The OLF also claimed it was "waging war" against the EPRDF in Hararge.

   On 28 March, there was a bomb explosion at the Relief and Rehabilitation Center (RRC) compound in Gode which injured several EPRDF troops, and there were unconfirmed reports that the Concern compound in the Ogaden was attacked.

   Two hijacking incidents occurred during the month.  The first involved an aborted attempt by two former army officers and a civilian to hijack an Ethiopian Airlines (EAL) flight from Addis Ababa to Bahir Dar.  The three were caught by Bole airport security personnel while attempting to smuggle a pistol aboard the plane.  Their intent was to hijack the plane to Europe where they were going to request political asylum.

   The second hijack occurred during an EAL flight from Gambella to Addis.  The hijackers, three men and a woman armed with hand grenades, asked the pilot to fly them to Djibouti.  The pilot refused, however, claiming he had to refuel in Dire Dawa.  After landing, government authorities refused to refuel the plane and it sat on the ground for almost a week while negotiations went on.  The drama ended when EPRDF troops stormed the plane, killing two of the hijackers and capturing the other two.  One passenger was killed and another was wounded in the crossfire.

   Hijacking incidents are on the rise because security personnel are inexperienced, and due to the increasing number of frustrated people who want out of Ethiopia.

   Authorities in Asmara, Eritrea have imposed new restrictions and have tightened security after sunset.  The measures were taken to "ensure protection of public property."  Even private guards must now stay inside their buildings or face arrest if found on the streets.

   Armed robbery and theft are also on the rise in Addis Ababa.  City police have announced they will round-up thieves and armed gangs within the city, and will sweep the streets clean of beggars as well.  Poverty and unemployment are the root causes of both problems.

Exploration Activities

   The Soviet Petroleum Exploration Expedition is winding up its activities.  It no longer receives financial support from Russia or Ethiopia, and is busy selling off equipment and vehicles to pay expenses.  They are also seeking to use some of the equipment as collateral for a loan from the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia to raise enough funds to complete the last bit of work.  The Russians are now capping the ten gas wells they had drilled.

   The Ethiopian side has discharged some 750 of its employees and is now left with only about 100 workers.

   A new unit called the Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Organization has been set up under the Ministry of Mines and Energy.  This is a follow-up to a feasibility study financed by the World Bank which called for the commercialization of the gas industry.  Part of the plan will involve forming a consortium to finance the Calub gas project.  The latter will involve an investment of US$80 million for the plant and a 30 km road from Shelabo to Calub.

   A committee has been formed to consider potential investors and issue shares in the project.  It is chaired by Jihad Abba Koyae.

   The geophysical survey company has completed its work for Maxus Energy in the Jijiga area.  The same company is now in southern Filtu working for Hunt Oil.

 Political Developments

   President Meles Zenawi announced the postponement of Ethiopia's first multi-party elections from this year to next year.  Meles gave no reason for the postponement, and simply declared:  "It is possible that the transitional period in Ethiopia will take two and a half years instead of two years."  The EPRDF government he heads had promised multi-party elections within 18 months of its formation in July 1991.

   The commission entrusted with drafting Ethiopia's new constitution has officially begun.  The commission is composed of 28 members from the Council of Representatives and the private legal sector.  Teshome Gebre Mariam is one of the 28 members.  The drafting process is expected to take one year.

   Hundreds of political prisoners who were under detention without trial for the past 18 months have been brought before the Central High Court.  Scores of officials and former military officers have been released on bail. They include five former cabinet ministers and senior military officers with ranks between Major General and Lt. Colonel.

   On the other hand, those remanded in custody include about 50 top party and state officials, former Derge and politburo members and higher ranking military officers.  The Special Prosecutor is preparing charges of massacre, murder and other similar crimes entailing capital punishment against most of the 50 former officials.

   President Meles feels that unless criminals of the Derge regime receive punishment proportionate to their crimes, the victories scored and the immense sacrifices endured by the Ethiopian people to overthrow the Mengistu regime would be meaningless.  He said the EPRDF could have executed all top government and military officials of the former regime when it took power, but it decided to bring those who had committed atrocities to trial so that future generations would not allow the repetition of similar mistakes.

   The government announced its decision to reopen Addis Ababa University during the first week of April 1993.

Economic/Relief Activities

   Britain announced it would provide US$28 million of emergency food and relief aid to the Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Kenya.  The package includes 25,000 tons of food aid and US$15 million worth of emergency non-food assistance to be channeled through UN organizations and voluntary organizations.

   Other aid agreements signed during the month include:  a grant from Japan for US$25 million; a grant from Finland for US$1 million; a grant from the Netherlands for US$39 million, and a long term technical cooperation agreement for an as yet undecided amount.

   The African Development Bank (ADB) has also earmarked US$300 million to support development activities in the country.  That amount includes a loan of US$112 million for this year for Ethiopia's structural adjustment program.

   These grants and loans are evidence of a continuing trend of general confidence in the viability of Ethiopia's economic recovery and development programs.

   Heavy rain in Ethiopia has brought floods to the Shebele river valley, causing catastrophic damage to reservoirs and flood control mechanisms among other things. Substantial engineering work will be needed to repair damaged flood regulators, and external technical assistance is being sought for repairs and replacement parts.

   The other side of this coin is that the rains over the past two years have contributed to a 7% rise in agricultural production; a record 7.69 million tons in 1992.  The other major factor in the increase is that the farmers are now owners of their entire produce.

   Paris Club donors are set to release US$1.2 billion in aid to reward Ethiopia for major economic reforms it has implemented.  The money will be disbursed up to June 1994 for long-term projects to speed economic development.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also expressed its admiration for Ethiopia's reforms but says that the government still has to embark on land reform.

   Nearly 1,000 employees of the defunct Ethiopian Building Construction Authority staged a hunger strike in Maskal Square to protest the abolishment of the company.  The strike ended after two days when officials from the President's office explained the situation to the protestors.

   The UN completed the voluntary repatriation of about 44,000 Ethiopian refugees from camps in northern Kenya.  Walda camp was closed and its remaining inhabitants sent to other refugee posts along the border.

Somalia

   The conference on Somalia ended in Addis Ababa on 27 March, with all 15 political factions agreeing to restore peace and stability to the country and to establish a democratic federal government.  All parties committed themselves to "complete and simultaneous disarmament" and the application of "strong and effective sanctions" against those violating the cease-fire agreement.  They also agreed to establish "an impartial national and regional Somali police force" recruited from all regions.

   The talks had been briefly suspended due to a clash of rival factions in Kisamyu which led to a walkout by Somalia's most powerful warlord, Mohammed Farah Aideed.

   UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali appointed retired U.S. Admiral Jonathan Howe as his special envoy to prepare for the transfer of humanitarian operations in Somalia from the U.S. to the UN.

Northern Somalia

   Tribal elders from across northwestern Somalia have gathered in the town of Borama in an attempt to hold together the breakaway state of Somaliland.  They are attempting to put an end to the anarchy which has made a mockery of the country's experiment in democracy.

   The country is fast disintegrating into tiny clan fiefdoms, the government is bankrupt, the civil service is not functioning, and banditry is reducing the people to bare subsistence.  But by far the greatest failure was in not setting up a revenue collection system, which led to a vicious circle of ever weaker central government and ever stronger local clan militias.  What little revenue is available -- fees at Berbera port and at Hargeisa airport, duty on imports of the drug "chat" from Ethiopia -- is in the hands of militias which refuse to contribute to the national treasury.

   Thus, without an army or the cash to pay for one, and without the respect that comes from recognition by other states, the nation will certainly crumble if the elders do not unite behind it.

   The only foreigners in Somaliland at the moment are 10 British ex-servicemen on a contract to clear mines for a company named Rimfire.  In more than one year of work they have destroyed 19,000 mines, only a fraction of the estimated 1.5 million pieces of ordnance littering the countryside.  They could work faster, but as soon as they bring in expensive equipment it is stolen by bandits and clan militias.  For example, Rimfire brought in nine Bedford trucks and Land Rovers last year to carry explosives and transport their workers.  Militiamen hijacked six of them, stripped the tops off, and fitted them with guns.  The following month two of the Britons were kidnapped near the town of Gebily and held for 10 hours until Rimfire paid a ransom of US$4,000.

   Although Rimfire is wholly commercial, their contracts are with humanitarian organizations concerned with civilian casualties from mines, and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, which wants to bring Somali refugees home from Ethiopia.  Although security in Somaliland continues to deteriorate, Rimfire says it will stay on as long as it feels there is little threat to the lives of its staff.