America sneezed, and the whole Middle East caught cold.

   When the Carter administration failed to act decisively in support of the shah of Iran, permitting the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to seize control, the balance of power in the region shifted away from the West and into the hands of men who are determined to bring about our downfall.  The rallying cry was Muslim fundamentalism, and the weapon of choice became international terrorism.

   Iran, once a powerful ally that policed the entire Persian Gulf region with arms purchased with hard cash from America, was turned overnight into a hated enemy.  The ripples from this single but enormous mistake resulted in, either directly or indirectly, the Iran-Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Lebanon crisis, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and now, the U.S. Iraqi face-off.

   We are now directly involved in the Middle East conflict.  America has sneezed once again.

   But whatever happens on the battlefield in the next few weeks, one fact is painfully clear: Saddam Hussein and his Palestinian allies will most certainly employ terrorism to advance their goals.  Even the mercurial Yasser Arafat, despite his recent reputation as a moderate, has not been above the use of terrorism.

   Terrorism is a relatively inexpensive means of doing business, takes little manpower and is tremendously effective in terms of world attention.  A successful terrorism campaign needs only: financing, people who are willing to commit terrorist acts and accessible targets.

   Hussein and Arafat’s PLO have all three.  The money will be drawn directly from Iraqi and PLO coffers; the terrorists will be selected from an existing pool of experienced killers; and there is no dearth of available targets.

   As for the killers, for the most part these will not be the young, idealistic suicide bombers from the Beirut days - these will be professional terrorists from the ranks of the PLO.

   The fellows who head these groups (Abu Nidal, Abu Abbas and Abu Ibrahim) have already brought us such headline events at the Rome airport massacre, the Achille Lauro hijacking and Pan Am 103.

   Now, with the enthusiastic backing of Hussein, these terrorists and their apprentices are prepared to redouble their efforts to hit Americans.

   As for the victims, terrorists use two criteria to pick their targets: the amount of publicity the act will receive, and the difficulty of the target.  They prefer targets that are relatively easy to hit but stand to deliver the maximum amount of public attention.

   For the most part the terrorists will select American targets in European and Middle Eastern cities where supportive Arab communities exist.

   Obvious targets for bombing will include highly visible U.S. government installations, companies, airlines, banks, U.S. diplomats and prominent businessmen.

  Domestically we are relatively safe, at least as long as the terrorists lack a viable support infrastructure for their operations.  Cities with fairly large Arab populations, Detroit, for example, will be more at risk.

   Nevertheless, we can’t afford to become too complacent with our security.  The U.S. is not immune.  We are faced with a determined group who would love to take the holy war to our home turf.  The blowing up of the American Club in Khartoum, Sudan, was buried somewhere back around Page 20, but hitting a restaurant in JFK Airport - now that would be news.

   One thing is clear.  We as a nation must be prepared.  We are vulnerable, and we will be hit.