Introduction/Highlights

   The self-proclaimed Somaliland Republic (Northern Somalia) has not been recognized internationally, and is largely unaffected by the bitter internecine fighting going on in the southern part of the Somalia.  Its leaders, which previously directed the separatist Somali National Movement (SNM) against Siad Barre, have promised a multi-party democracy, a free market economy and western-style civil liberties within two years.  Two of the republic's leaders, Finance Minister Ismael Burreh and Vice President Hassan Issa Jama, are visiting western countries, the UN and neighboring states on either side of the Red Sea in an effort to drum up support for their fledgling republic.

Situation Overview

   During the Mengistu regime in Ethiopia, the Somali National Movement (SNM), which Mengistu secretly supported and encouraged in its anti-Siad Barre struggle, had often expressed its desire for an eventual closer political association with Ethiopia; the present leadership of Somaliland is pursuing the same course with the current Ethiopian leadership.  It is considered a "national goal."

   However, neither Mengistu nor the TGE would dare to encourage secessionism, either covertly or overtly.  The rationale is that to allow secession in any African country would establish a nasty precedent for Eritrea.  Hence, the former Ethiopian government publicly declared that it supported the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia.  The TGE will probably follow suit for the present, at least overtly, but this could change depending upon what happens with Eritrea.

   When Siad Barre was ousted and Somalia sank into anarchy and chaos, Northern Somalis openly declared that they had more in common with Ethiopians than they did with Southern Somalis.  They continue to stress this point, even to the extent of declaring that Berbera is a more natural outlet to the sea for Ethiopia than either Assab or Massawa.

   Although the Northern Somali leadership has repeatedly approached the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) for a formal political association, the latter, which claims to support the right of self-determination of all nationalities, is reluctant to accept the offer.  Only time will tell what the eventual map of the Horn of Africa will look like.

   Currently, several Non-Government Organizations are working in Northern Somalia.  They include:  Oxfam, CARE, Medicins-San-Frontiers, Radda Barnen, DisTel, etc.

Security Situation

   At present, a general state of lawlessness prevails in Somaliland.  There are frequent outbursts of inter-clan fighting and indiscriminate looting and banditry.  For instance, early in the month a vehicle was stolen from OXFAM, and a company called Turn-Key was attacked in its camp.  Also, bank deposits belonging to CARE were stolen in Hargeisa and food was plundered from NGO stores in Berbera. Among the suspects in all of these actions are government troops.

   The only access to Northern Somalia is via chartered light aircraft and small boats from Djibouti.  Mine clearing operations are proceeding very slowly because the contractor is reluctant to take sophisticated equipment into the area.

   Issa Mussa is continuing to oppose President Tur in Berbera, and there is no sign of an improvement in the general situation in the country.  In fact, incidents such as the recent discovery of mass graves are aggravating the conflict.

The Economy

   Strangely enough, in the midst of all of this mayhem, business is said to be booming in Hargeisa, with stolen goods and live animals being traded there.

   Somaliland is appealing to the world for US$230 million in economic assistance to bring about basic stability and to launch an economic and political reform program.  Roughly two-thirds of the money would go towards collecting weapons from civilians and restoring order in the republic, which broke away from the rest of Somalia after President Mohamed Siad Barre was ousted 14 months ago.  The rest of the money would go towards the rebuilding of government offices, improving road and rail links, and providing basic equipment to run the region, ripped apart by a decade of civil unrest.  The country is not interested in military assistance of any kind.

   Somaliland's economy, largely based on livestock trading, has been on its knees since Siad Barre went.  Its leaders want to take advantage of its ports to turn it into a trading center for the entire Red Sea region.

   They are also urging western companies to tap its crude oil resources.  No company has been known to have engaged in exploration activities in Somaliland since Chevron discontinued its operations there in mid-1988.

   But foreign moves to help have been slow in coming.  For instance, a team of German doctors running the only hospital in Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa, pulled out during mid-March saying it was impossible to work there because of widespread looting by armed gangs.

Southern Somalia

   The situation in the rest of what was once Somalia is equally grave.  The entire country has been engulfed in clan-based warfare since the United Somali Congress rebel group toppled the dictatorship of Mohammad Siad Barre in January 1990.  UN officials have estimated that 30,000 Somalians have been killed or injured in Mogadishu alone since November 1991.  More than 300,000 of the city's residents have fled.  Throughout Somalia it is estimated that the civil war has caused the displacement of over two million people out of an estimated population of seven million.

   Although the country faces widespread famine, unabated fighting in Mogadishu has precluded a large-scale aid program.  The UN's US$12 million program to help the displaced and starving in Somalia sits far from reality in Mogadishu, unable to even start until a cease-fire is in place.  Six UN employees have been killed in Somalia in the past year.  The UN said regional efforts to settle the civil war have generally failed, and it was quick to announce that its assistance program in Northern Somalia in no way implies recognition of the political situation there.  In the South, UN workers had to be temporarily evacuated several times due to the fighting.

   Delivery of food already committed by aid agencies is proving impossible.  UNICEF ships wait in the harbor, unable to dock and in danger of being ambushed by starving Somalis the moment they do.  Four foreign aid workers were killed in January alone.

   But having been supplied with arms during the cold war, Somalia does have large ammunition stores, and there is little prospect of them running out anytime soon.  Although the two warring factions signed an agreement at UN headquarters in February stipulating their intention to end the year-old bloody civil war, a viable cease-fire remains elusive.  Africa Watch predicted that UN cease-fire efforts would fail unless the world body posts a permanent representative in Mogadishu and becomes better informed about the country's problems.

Islamic Fundamentalism

   In a country where the only two remaining embassies in the capital are maintained by Egypt and Sudan, there has been a noticeable increase in Iranian activity.  Iran is funding the Somali faction of General Mohamed Farah Aideed, which is fighting to overthrow President Ah  Mahdi Mohamed, backed by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  Iran has clearly been on a path of supporting the rise of radical Islamic fundamentalism in Africa, particularly in the Horn, where close to one-fourth of the population is Muslim.