Most technical forms of intelligence collection, from satellites to overhead photography, can only tell us what the enemy is doing at any moment.  Human spies, however, can provide us with intelligence on the intentions of an enemy.

   This human intelligence collection – called HUMINT in the trade – remains the most efficient, economical and effective way to collect information.  (Of course, appraising intent requires another step:  analysis.)

   Do not overlook other collection methods available, such as the use of open source information on computer databases, the Internet and elsewhere.

   Only a few short years ago, information gathering required hours of lugubrious effort rummaging through 3x5 cards in a library and days of pounding the pavements in search of knowledgeable and relevant people to interview.  This process was so time intensive and expensive that most companies decided against any investigation at all.  Instead, they went with their gut feelings, crossed their fingers and hoped for the best.

   The 1990s, however, brought with it the PC, the World Wide Web, and the exponential spread of databases containing readily available and cheap information.  This glut of data has made it possible to obtain information on individuals and companies – domestically and internationally – from just a desktop computer. 

   Considering the relative ease and economy with which this information can be gathered today, why do so many companies continue to neglect this aspect of competition – particularly abroad where the terrain is less familiar, the rules of engagement are different, and the competition has the home-field advantage?

   Because they are often reluctant to spend additional funds collecting information they feel they can do without.  (Sun Tzu would have turned over in his grave!)

   The value of thorough, objective intelligence has been recognised since time immemorial.  Those who knew this fact were successful; those who did not lost out. 

   Target Market:  Somaliland

   In the last article, I mentioned a two-year assignment with Maxus Energy where I helped provide them with a steady stream of information and guidance on how to work safely and securely in Ethiopia; in particular the very dangerous Ogaden region.

   Consider, as an example, how human intelligence helped Maxus discover if the company could obtain drilling concessions in Northern Somalia, just over the Ogaden border from where they were exploring.

   From my days in Ethiopia, I was well aware of the problems in Northern Somalia.  The area, known in colonial days as British Somaliland, was waging an all-out war with the Mogadishu government that opposed its secession.  Tribal leaders were fighting an internecine war among themselves as they vied for positions of leadership and control.

   The government (what there was of one) could not collect sufficient taxes and therefore had little money to pay its army, let alone its public servants.  Worse, the border region where Maxus wanted to explore was populated by bandits and littered with land mines left behind from years of border skirmishes. 

   My risk assessment pointed out all of these facts, but Maxus decided to take the investigation a step further.  It wanted a “targeted collection”, specifically on whether any drilling concessions were available along the Ethiopian/Ogaden border (Maxus had heard that all concessions had been leased), and if so, could they obtain one and how much would it cost.

   This was information not readily available.  Public records were scattered, incomplete, and in many cases, inaccurate.  Access to them would require “baksheesh” (bribes) to induce unpaid public servants to search for the records, plus the help of a high-level source within the government, preferably within the Ministry of Mining and Water.

   I sent the requirement to one of my Ethiopian sources, who soon replied that a friend of his had direct access to none other than the current Minister of Mining and Water, Mohammed Ali Ateye.

   This news was manna from heaven.  Ali Ateye could answer all of our questions and had it in his power to make any arrangements needed.  A meeting was arranged.

   When the two agents returned with their reports, it was as Maxus had suspected.  Most of the concessions had been leased to major oil companies; including Texaco, Conoco, Phillips, Chevron, Amoco and Agip, and could not be broken.  However, according to the minister there was one lease held by Alliance Exploration Inc. out of Alliance, Nebraska, which had a prime concession in the Burao region directly across the border from one of Maxus’ Ethiopian exploration sites. 

  Ali Ateye revealed that his agreement with Alliance Exploration could be broken if necessary, as Alliance had failed to fulfill certain terms of the agreement.  He indicated that Maxus would only have to pay “the going rate” for the concession, but sources reported that a “commission” would have to be paid to Ali Ateye as well. 

   Armed with this information, the Maxus board reconvened to discuss the pros and cons of investing in The Somaliland Republic.  They again considered the risks outlined in the risk assessment, the costs (including an illegal bribe to a government official), and decided against the venture.

   I have no idea whether Maxus Energy now regrets that decision, but I do know it was based on the best information available to the company at the time.  Looking at the situation with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the deterioration of both Somali governments in the months and years that followed would seem to indicate otherwise. 

   General Sun Tzu and The Value of Clear Instructions

   Sun Tzu, as I mentioned earlier, was not just a bespectacled Chinese academician who spent all his time reading books and pontificating to the King’s Court about tactics on how to win battles.  He was a hands-on combatant who rose to the rank of General by ruthlessly applying the principles of warfare and espionage he had devised over the years (and since set down in his book, The Art of War).

   To give you an idea of the kind of man Sun Tzu was:  about 2,500 years ago Ho-lu, the King of Wu, asked Sun Tzu – rhetorically – if he could train women in the same manner he trained men.  Sun Tzu replied that he could.  To test the general, the King assigned 180 beautiful young women from the palace to Sun Tzu’s army with instructions to teach them troop movement techniques. 

   Sun Tzu divided the women into two companies and placed the King’s two favorite concubines in command of each company.  He began to train them in the basics of close-order drill.  The first time he commanded the women, they burst into laughter.  He settled them down and explained, “If my instructions were not clear, then it is my fault.  Commanders must make sure their instructions are clear.”

   Sun Tzu then repeated the drill three more times, explained it five more times, and then asked the women whether they understood the commands.  Upon confirmation, he repeated the drill.  Again, they laughed.

   Sun Tzu then said:  “If instructions are not clear and commands not explicit, it is the commander’s fault.  But when they have been made clear and are not carried out, the fault lies with the officers in charge of the companies.”  He then ordered the two company commanders (the king’s favourite concubines) beheaded in front of their troops.

   Of course the king was most unhappy.  But Sun Tzu explained to Ho-lu that as Commander his orders were final, and admonished the King for trying to interfere.  He thereupon asked the King to watch him drill the two companies. 

   Sun Tzu selected two more women to lead the companies.  The drills were completed in strict accordance, with nary a giggle from their ranks.  To the king, he said:  “The troops are now in good order.  They may be employed as the King desires, and they will even go through fire and water without a challenge to an order.”

   The king soon got over his pique and Sun Tzu went on to defeat the strong state of Ch’u to the west and subjugate the states of Ying, Ch’i, and Chin to the north.  The Kingdom of Wu ruled supreme in that part of China for the next 100 years due to Sun Tzu’s military achievements.

   Today, Sun Tzu’s lessons are still being studied by military and business leaders alike.